The Market Is Not Slowing Down, It’s Normalizing
Everyone keeps asking the same question; they are whispering it because it is fearful: Is the market slowing down?
I don’t think so.
I think what we are feeling is the market coming down from the craziness of 2020 through 2024, and a lot of people forgot what normal felt like.
In my little corner of electrical manufacturing, the demand drivers are still very real.
AI is driving more power demand.
The grid is aging.
Utilities and OEMs still need equipment.
Data center growth is not exactly pointing to less infrastructure.
So why does everyone feel nervous?
My opinion: because panic created a false baseline.
2020 was a year no one could have predicted. Salaries jumped, hiring became frenzied. Backlogs stretched to years. Everything felt like a 911 emergency. Yet transformers were being quoted for a sixty-month delivery…go figure…major switchgear OEMs stopped quoting due to the backlog.
Now we are not going at that same speed, and people are waiting for the proverbial other shoe to fall.
I don’t think we are waiting for the shoe to drop.
I think we are setting a new normal.
That does not mean there are no issues. Tariffs are still a problem. Global sourcing is still messy. Costs are still creating hesitation in places they did not before.
But that is not the same thing as saying the market is drying up.
It is not. IMHO, the first indication that the market is getting soft is RIFs. I am not seeing that. In fact, it is just the opposite. My clients are hiring.
This industry still has major demand drivers behind it, with an average age of a transformer around 38 years old, which is not exactly a picture of long-term stability. That hard-working piece of equipment is ready for replacement, not another Band-Aid repair.
The need is still there. It just looks different in 2026 than it did in 2020.
Which camp are you in? Are you worried about a soft market, or do you believe this is a new normal being created?
I am a glass is always half full kind of gal. Heck, if necessary, I will get a new bottle. I don’t think we are facing slowdowns in electrical manufacturing, do you?
